A recent study from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) reveals that workers with four-year degrees are projected to dominate good jobs by 2031. This is based on research that predicts significant growth in employment opportunities for individuals with bachelor’s degrees in the decade following 2021.
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Key Takeaways:
- By 2031, 15 million more good jobs are expected to be created for workers with bachelor’s diplomas.
- Two-thirds of all good jobs in 2031 will require a four-year degree or more, up from 59% in 2021.
- Colleges need to make education more affordable to attract students without burdening them with debt.
How Do You Get a Good Job in the Current Climate?
The report outlines three primary pathways to securing good jobs. These pathways are differentiated by educational attainment: high school diploma or less, some college or an associate degree, and a bachelor’s degree or higher. The researchers stress that a bachelor’s degree remains the most secure route to well-paying employment. Artem Gulish, senior federal policy advisor at Georgetown CEW and co-author of the report, states,
“Bachelor’s and graduate degrees will remain dominant and even grow into the future.”
While the report highlights the importance of bachelor’s degrees, it also acknowledges opportunities for workers on the “middle-skills” pathway. This includes those with some college education or an associate degree. Catherine Morris, senior editor and writer at Georgetown CEW, noted:
“A generic associate’s degree may not have the same returns as in other fields, but there are certainly opportunities on the middle-skills pathway that are, in some cases, more affordable than a four-year degree.”
Despite the focus on bachelor’s degrees, the report suggests that 19% of good jobs in 2031 will be accessible through middle-skills pathways. These jobs will become increasingly important as skills-based hiring gains traction and employers prioritize candidates’ competencies over formal certifications.
What Does It Mean for Higher Ed
The report shows the need for higher education institutions to adapt. With a third of U.S. adults expressing little confidence in higher education, colleges must enhance their value proposition by improving financial accessibility. Morris explained:
“Educational institutions need to be thinking about costs — particularly at the four-year level — to make it more viable for more students to attend without fully burdensome debt.”
Several sectors are projected to offer promising opportunities for middle-skills workers. The healthcare industry, driven by an aging population, is expected to see growth. Other fields such as construction, maintenance, and protective services will also be in high demand.
Technological innovations, particularly in artificial intelligence, are anticipated to reshape the labor market. The report predicts that, although these changes may disrupt certain job sectors initially (as they already did), they will ultimately lead to the creation of more jobs. Gulish commented:
“History shows that these kinds of new technologies generally tend to create more jobs than they destroy. Business will need help implementing things like AI in the long run.”
With that being said, while bachelor’s degrees will play an understandable important role in securing good jobs in the future, middle-skills pathways will also offer viable opportunities. Higher education institutions must focus on affordability to stay relevant, and technological advancements will continue to influence job market trends anyway.
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